Failed Ukraine would weaken both US and Europe, says EU chief von der Leyen

MUNICH, Germany — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made clear at the Munich Security Conference on Friday that a lasting peace in Ukraine is not just in the European Union’s interest, but in the interest of the U.S. as well.

“At the center of everything is security for Ukraine, for our continent, and for the broader world,” she said. “In this room, we all feel what is at stake. This is a historic moment. Great challenges are emerging, and there have been many discussions over the past three days. But it is always useful to look beyond words and recognize that we are only at the beginning of this process. It is worth summing up what the starting positions are.”

Her words came just days after the Trump administration appeared to be sending mixed messages about talks seeking to end the fighting there.

On Wednesday, in an interview with Fox News, President Donald Trump appeared to suggest that the U.S. didn’t have much of a stake if Russia eventually prevailed in its war with Ukraine. Ukraine “may make a deal, they may not make a deal,” Trump said. “They may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday.”

A day later, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Vice President JD Vance seemed at odds with the president when he declared that all military and economic options were on the table if Russia didn’t negotiate an end to the war in good faith. 

“There are economic tools of leverage, there are, of course, military tools of leverage”, Vance told The Journal, adding that it was too early to talk about specific territorial arrangements or security guarantees for Ukraine. “There are any number of formulations, of configurations, but we do care about Ukraine having sovereign independence,” he added. “The president is not going to go in this with blinders on. He’s going to say, ‘Everything is on the table, let’s make a deal.’” 

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Vance on the sidelines of the Munich conference on Friday and said the discussions went well. “We had good conversations today, our first meeting, not last, I’m sure,” he said, adding that they needed to continue talking about how to bring an end to the war. “We want peace very much, but we need real security guarantees, and we’ll continue our meetings and our work,” he said.

Vance was close-mouthed about Ukraine during his keynote address at the conference on Friday. He said in passing that the U.S. was looking for a “reasonable settlement” without providing any detail.

The EU’s von der Leyen, for her part, didn’t dwell on the confusion but instead emphasized that the European Union remains committed to finding an agreement that "works for all.” 

"Both the U.S. and the EU want to see an end to the bloodshed and a just, lasting peace — one that ensures a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine," she said. “Ukraine needs peace through strength. Europe wants peace through strength. And President Trump has made it clear that the U.S. is firmly committed to bringing peace through strength,” she said.

Von der Leyen’s comments come amid fears that the U.S. and Russia will exclude both  European and Ukrainian officials from any talks aimed at ending the fighting. Trump added to those fears when he seemed to cast doubt that Ukraine would have a say in its own fate. When Trump told reporters that he had already spoken with Putin about a ceasefire and they were working out details about possible talks, one asked if Ukraine would be included in the discussion. “That's an interesting question,” Trump responded.

Zelensky, meeting with European allies on the fringes of the security conference, seemed to ignore the sturm-and-drang coming out of Washington when he spoke to reporters in Germany. "We are open to any framework to stop Putin," he said. "But we want to act in accordance with international law, legal principles and ensure there is no possibility of Putin’s return."

To do that, he said, Europe would need to be involved in the discussions. "Russia wants Europe to stay out of the negotiations, and this is absolutely dangerous for everyone," he said, adding that the Kremlin would do whatever it could to create divisions between the U.S. and its allies. “But we must do everything to reunite the U.S. and the EU," he said.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested that the deployment of American troops in Ukraine would not be part of any deal or security guarantee. Hegseth told NATO allies that European and non-European troops — but not Americans — would likely have to police any agreement that is finally reached between Ukraine and Russia.

Whether Putin is ready to compromise and end the fighting is another matter. According to intelligence analysts tracking the conflict, Putin believes he is winning the war and has maximalist ideas of what should emerge from any agreement. If an agreement were inked today, they said, Putin would demand not just to keep the 20 percent of Ukraine that Russia now controls, but would also seek guarantees that Ukraine could never be a member of NATO. 

Both sides are losing, said one analyst, but Ukraine is losing faster.

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